The World Citrus Organisation releases its first production forecast for the Northern Hemisphere

The World Citrus Organisation (WCO) has released its annual Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for the upcoming citrus season (2025-26), which was presented on the occasion of the 2025-2026 Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast Outlook, organised on 20 November by WCO. The Forecast, based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, the United States, and Portugal, shows that citrus production is expected to decrease by 1.51% compared to the 2024-2025 season, with a total of 27,397,239 t, which is also a 5.13% decrease from the average of the previous four seasons.

WCO, the World Citrus Organisation, released on 20 November its annual Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for the upcoming season (2025-26). The preliminary Forecast is based on data from industry associations from the Mediterranean region and the United States. Citrus production for 2025/2026 is expected to decrease by 1.51% compared to the 2024-2025 season, with a total of 27,397,239 t, which is also a 5.13% decrease compared to the average of the previous four seasons. Exports are also foreseen to decline (-0.81% compared to last season and -8.25% compared to the 4-year average, respectively).

Looking at the country-specific figures for the largest producers in the EU, Spain’s citrus production is projected to decrease by 9.72% compared to the previous season, to a total of 5.59 million t (-11.20% lower than the previous four seasons). The second-largest EU producer, Italy, also foresees a decrease in its volumes (-6.12%, 3 million t in total),  with Greece (1.23 million t) also reducing its production by 1.58%. Portugal, contributing to the forecast for the second year, expects a 14.20% increase (0.38 million t). Looking at the main non-EU countries in the Mediterranean, Egypt expects a 13.85% growth to become the largest producer with 4.95 million t. Turkey, on the other hand, foresees a stark decline in 2025-2026 compared to both last year (-10.83%) and the average of the last four seasons (-15.31%), with 4.42 million t. The situation in Morocco should remain stable at 2.09 million t. Regarding the smaller non-EU Mediterranean producers, Israel reports the largest increase (+24.12%, 0.53 million t in total), while the estimates for Tunisia are 3% lower than last season (0.37 million t). Although the release of the yearly forecast by the USDA has been delayed due to the government shutdown, early estimates from California and Florida indicate a 4.53% increase, bringing the American production to 4.85 million t, pending further revisions.

Looking at the production by category, oranges (representing 51% of the total volumes) are set to decrease by 2.16% to a total of 13.86 million t. Soft citrus production should increase by 5.91% (8.51 million t in total), while lemons are expected to experience a 12.38% reduction (4.23 million t). Finally, grapefruit production is predicted to increase slightly to 0.79 million t (+1.17% compared to 2024-2025).

 Next April, the WCO will release the 2026 production and export forecast for the Southern Hemisphere.